Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Search for an Alternative Method of Measuring Central Bank Credibility - The Case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) –

Year 2021, , 256 - 270, 01.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop an index-based alternative method in order to measure the CBRT’s credibility. Unlike the previous studies, the original contribution of the method developed in the study is revealed in two points: (i) Inflation targets, which cannot be achieved for a long time, lose the function of anchoring inflation expectations. In this case, developing countries’ central banks prefer to use their own inflation forecasts as an intermediate target in order to manage inflation expectation of private economic agents. Because of this situation, which is also observed in the Turkish economy, the reliability of credibility indices calculated using only the inflation target is open to debate. Therefore, while developing an alternative central bank credibility index in this study, the year-end inflation forecast in the first inflation report of the relevant year besides the central bank’s inflation target are taken into account. (ii) In economies that experience high inflation and/or where inflation exhibits inertia, as using 20% threshold level for the inflation rate like in the previous studies means giving more tolerance to inflation. However, after the CBRT switched to an inflation targeting strategy, the inflation rate fell to single digits, and double-digit inflation rates were considered as a negative psychological level in terms of inflation dynamics. By taking account this situation, in this study, 10% threshold level for the inflation rate is decided to use. Consequently, since the central bank credibility index developed in the study has a more dynamic structure, it is seemed to better explain the CBRT’s credibility level.

References

  • Adler, G., Lama, R., & Medina, J.P. (2019). Foreign Exchange Intervention and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 106(2019) 103716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.07.002
  • Adrian, T., Laxton, D., & Obstfeld, M. (2018). An Overview of Inflation Forcast Targeting. T. Adrian, D. Laxton ve M. Obstfeld (Ed.). Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, Washington: International Monetary Fund Publication Services, 3-14.
  • Agénor, P.R., & Taylor, M.P. (1992). Testing for Credibility Effects. IMF Staff Papers, 39(3), 545-571.
  • Agénor, P.R. (2001). Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No.124.
  • Ball, L. (1992), Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility. NBER Working Paper, No. 3983, February.
  • Başçı, E., & Kara, A.H. (2011). Financial Stability and Monetary Policy. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 9-25.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R.L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587.
  • Bernanke, B.S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F.S., & Posen, A.S. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from The International Experience. Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ.
  • Bernanke, B.S. (2004). What Have We Learned Since October 1979? To the Conference on Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years after October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, October 8, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri.
  • Blinder, A.S. (1999). Central Banking in Theory and Practice. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
  • Blinder, A. S. (2000) Central-bank credibility: why do we care? How do we build it?, American Economic Review, 90(5), 1421-1431.
  • Bomfim, A., & Rudebusch, G. (2000). Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(4), 707-721. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601179.
  • Bordo, M.D., & Siklos, P.L. (2015). Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration. NBER Working Paper, No. w20824.
  • Bordo, M. D., & Siklos, P.L. (2017). Central Bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis. Open Economies Review, 28(1), 19-45. doi: 10.1007/s11079-016-9411-2
  • Borio, C., & White, W.R. (2004). Whither Monetary and Financail Stability? The Implications of Evolving Policy Regimes. BIS Working Papers, No.147.
  • Brunner, K. (1983). Has Monetarism Failed? Cato Journal, 3, 23-62.
  • Deutsche Bundesbank (2015). The Importance of Macroprudential Policy for Monetary Policy. Monthly Report March 2015. 39-71.
  • Calderón, C., Duncan, R., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2004). Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies. Banco Central de Chile, No.285.
  • Carare, A., Andrea, S., Mark, R.S., & Marc, Z. (2002). Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/02/102, June 2002.
  • Cecchetti, S.G., & Krause, S. (2002). Central Bank Structure, Policy Efficiency, and Macroeconomic Performance: Exploring Empirical Relationships. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84, 99-117. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.47-60.
  • Cukierman, A. (1986). Central Bank Behavior and Credibility: Some Recent Theoretical Developments. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 68(5), 5-17. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.5-17.him.
  • Çakmaklı, C., & Demiralp, S. (2020). A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility. Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper No: 2015 October 2020.
  • Chansriniyom, T., Epstein, N., & Nalban, V. (2020). The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/20/201.
  • Dabla-Norris, E., Kim. D., Zermeño, M., Billmeier, A., & Kramarenko, V. (2007). Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/07/133, June, 2007.
  • De Mendonça, H.F. (2007). Towards Credibility from Inflation Targeting: The Brazilian Experience. Applied Economics, 39(20), 2599-2615. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707324.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2009). Inflation Targeting Credibility and Reputation: The Consequences for the Interest Rate. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1228-1238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.05.010
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2012). Is Inflation Targeting A Good Remedy to Control Inflation? Journal of Development Economics, 98(2), 178-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.011.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & Tiberto, B.P. (2017). Effect of Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through on Inflation: An Assessment for Developing Countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 50, 196-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.03.027
  • Debelle, G., & Fischer, S. (1994). How Independent Should A Central Bank Be? J.C. Fuhrer (Ed.). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policy Makers [Conference Series No.38] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 195-225).
  • Debelle, G., Masson, P., Savastano, M., & Sharma, S. (1998). Inflation Targeting as A Framework for Monetary Policy. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/97/35.
  • Dell’Aricca, G., Rabanal, P., & Sandri, D. (2018). Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 147-72. doi: 10.1257/jep.32.4.147
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., Arcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2009). Anchors for Inflation Expectations. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No.229.
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2012). A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1). 1-36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2442.
  • Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00207.
  • Drazen, A., & Masson P.R. (1994). Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policy Makers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 735-754. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118420.
  • Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018-1052. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118420.
  • Farmer, R.E.A. (2012). The Effect of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rules on Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28(4), 622-639. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grs024.
  • Faust, J.W., & Svensson, L.E.O. (1998). Credibility and Transparency: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals. NBER Working Paper, No.6452.
  • Freedman, C., & Laxton, D. (2009). Country Experiences with the Introduction and Implementation of Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/09/161.
  • Fuhrer, J.C. (1994). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers: An Overview. J.C. Fuhrer (Ed.). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policy Makers [Conference Series No.38], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 3-16.
  • Fuhrer, J.C., & Moore, G. (1995). Inflation Persistence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 127-159. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118513.
  • Gerlach-Kristen, P., & Mossner, R. (2014). Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 150(2), 55-87. doi:10.1007/BF03399402.
  • Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B.P., & Swanson, E.T. (2007). Market-based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 25(2), 201-212. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500106000000387.
  • Heenan, G., Marcel, P., & Scott, R. (2006). Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design and Communications. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/06/278.
  • International Monetary Fund (2018). Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize. World Economic Outlook October, Chapter 3, 101-126.
  • Issler, J.V., & Soares, A.F. (2019). Central Bank Credibility and Inflation Expectations: A Microfounded Forecasting Approach, No. 812. EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance-FGV EPGE (Brazil).
  • Kara, A.H. (2012). Monetary Policy in the Post-crises Period, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27(315), 9-36.
  • Laxton, D., & N’Diaye, P. (2002). Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-inflation Trade off: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/02/220.
  • Lee, S., & Kim, Y.M. (2019). Inflation Expectation, Monetary Policy Credibility, and Exchange Rates. Finance Research Letters, 31 December. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.006.
  • Levieuge, G., Lucotte, Y., & Ringuedé, S. (2018). Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index. Review of World Economics, 154, 493-535. doi: 10.1007/s10290-018-0308-6.
  • Levin, A.T., Natalucci, F.M., & Pilger, J.M. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, 86(4), 51-80. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.51-80.
  • Łyziak, T., Mackiewicz, J., & Stanislawska, E. (2007). Central Bank Transparency and Credibility: The Case of Poland. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(1), 67-87. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.05.004.
  • Minella, A., De Freitas, P.S., Goldfajn, I., & Muinhos, M.K. (2003). Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22(7), 1015-1040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.09.008.
  • Montes, G.C. (2009). Reputation, Credibility and Monetary Policy Effectiveness. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39(3), 673-698. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000300009.
  • Montes, G.C. (2013). Credibility and Monetary Transmission Channels under Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis from A Developing Country. Economic Modelling, 30, 670-684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.035.
  • Montes, G.C., & Bastos, J.C.A. (2014). Effects of Reputation and Credibility on Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Brazil. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(3), 387-404. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-11-2012-0158.
  • Montes, G.C., & Curi, A. (2016). The Importance of Credibility for the Conduct of Monetary Policy and Inflation Control: Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis for Brazil under Inflation Targeting. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 46.
  • Montes, G.C. Oliveira, L.V., Curi, A., & Nicolay, R.T.F. (2016), Effects of Transparency, Monetary Policy Signalling and Clarity of Central Bank Communication on Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. Applied Economics, 48(7), 590-607. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1083091.
  • Nyberg, P., & Wilhelmsson, A. (2009). Measuring Event Risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 7(3), 265-287.
  • Özatay, F. (2011). The New Monetary Policy of the Central Bank: Two Targets-three Intermediate Targets-three Tools. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 27–43.
  • Özdağoğlu, A. (2013). Farklı Normalizasyon Yöntemlerinin TOPSIS’te Karar Verme Sürecine Etkisi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 245-257.
  • Perrier, P., & Amano, R. (2000). Credibility and Monetary Policy. Bank of Canada Review, Spring, 11-17.
  • Posen, A. (1998). Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link? Oxford Economic Papers, 50(3), 335-359. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a028650.
  • Potter, S.M. ve Smets, F. (2019). Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools: A Cross-country Analysis. BIS CGFS Papers, No.63.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2008). 2009 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası (16 Aralık 2008), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2019a). Konuşma: Murat Çetinkaya 2019-II Enflasyon Raporu Bilgilendirme Toplantısı (30 Nisan 2019), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2019b). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti (30 Nisan 2019), Sayı 2019-18, TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2020a). 2021 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası (16 Aralık 2020), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2020b). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti (31 Aralık 2020), Sayı 2020-77. TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası., “Sıkça Sorulan Sorular”, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Banka+Hakkinda/Sikca+Sorulan+Sorular/Para+Politikasi+ve+Enflasyon+Hedeflemesi (erişim tarihi:18.04.2021)
  • Siscú, J. (2002). Inflation Expectations in an Inflation-targeting Regime: A Preliminary Analysis of the Brazilian Case. Applied Economics, 6(4), 703-711..
  • Siklos, P.L. (2013). Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation. Journal of International Economics, 90(1), 218-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.09.005
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (1997). Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets. European Economic Review, 41(6), 1111-1146. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2000a). How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability? NBER Working Paper. No.w7516.
  • Svensson, L.E.O (2000b). Open-economy Inflation Targeting. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 155-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00078-6.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2003). Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization. NBER Workisng Paper, No.w9486.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2009). Flexible Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the Financial Crisis. BIS Review, No.112/2009.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2011). Inflation Targeting. B.M. Friedman ve M. Woodford (Ed.). Handbook of Monetary Economics 3B Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, 1237-1302.
  • Ueda, K., & Valencia, F. (2014). Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation. Economics Letters, 125(2), 327-330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.038.
  • Yellen, J.L. (2006). Enhancing FED Credibility. Business Economics, 41(2), 7-13. doi: 10.2145/20060201.

Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–

Year 2021, , 256 - 270, 01.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, TCMB’nin kredibilitesini ölçmek için endeks tabanlı alternatif bir yöntem geliştirmektir. Önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, çalışmada geliştirilen yöntemin orijinal katkısı iki noktada ortaya çıkmaktadır: (i) Uzun süre gerçekleştirilemeyen enflasyon hedefleri, enflasyon beklentilerini çıpalama işlevini kaybetmektedir. Bu durumda, gelişmekte olan ülke merkez bankaları özel iktisadi karar birimlerinin enflasyon beklentilerini yönetebilmek için kendi enflasyon tahminlerini ara hedef olarak kullanmayı tercih etmektedirler. Türkiye ekonomisinde de gözlemlenen bu durum nedeniyle, sadece enflasyon hedefi kullanılarak hesaplanan kredibilite endekslerinin güvenilirliği tartışmaya açıktır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada alternatif bir merkez bankası kredibilite endeksi geliştirilirken, merkez bankasının enflasyon hedefinin yanı sıra, ilgili yılın ilk enflasyon raporundaki yılsonu enflasyon tahmini de dikkate alınmaktadır. (ii) Yüksek enflasyon yaşayan ve/veya enflasyonun atalet sergilediği ekonomilerde, önceki çalışmalarda olduğu gibi enflasyon oranı için yüzde 20 eşik düzeyini kullanmak, enflasyona daha fazla tolerans vermek anlamına gelmektedir. Oysa TCMB enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisine geçtikten sonra, enflasyon oranı tek haneli rakamlara düşmüş ve çift haneli enflasyon oranları enflasyon dinamikleri açısından olumsuz bir psikolojik seviye olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bu durum dikkate alınarak, bu çalışmada enflasyon oranı için %10 eşik düzeyinin kullanılmasına karar verilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, çalışmada geliştirilen merkez bankası kredibilite endeksi daha dinamik bir yapıya sahip olduğu için, TCMB’nin kredibilite düzeyini daha iyi açıkladığı görülmektedir.

References

  • Adler, G., Lama, R., & Medina, J.P. (2019). Foreign Exchange Intervention and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 106(2019) 103716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.07.002
  • Adrian, T., Laxton, D., & Obstfeld, M. (2018). An Overview of Inflation Forcast Targeting. T. Adrian, D. Laxton ve M. Obstfeld (Ed.). Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, Washington: International Monetary Fund Publication Services, 3-14.
  • Agénor, P.R., & Taylor, M.P. (1992). Testing for Credibility Effects. IMF Staff Papers, 39(3), 545-571.
  • Agénor, P.R. (2001). Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation Targeting. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No.124.
  • Ball, L. (1992), Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility. NBER Working Paper, No. 3983, February.
  • Başçı, E., & Kara, A.H. (2011). Financial Stability and Monetary Policy. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 9-25.
  • Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R.L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587.
  • Bernanke, B.S., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F.S., & Posen, A.S. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from The International Experience. Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ.
  • Bernanke, B.S. (2004). What Have We Learned Since October 1979? To the Conference on Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years after October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, October 8, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri.
  • Blinder, A.S. (1999). Central Banking in Theory and Practice. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
  • Blinder, A. S. (2000) Central-bank credibility: why do we care? How do we build it?, American Economic Review, 90(5), 1421-1431.
  • Bomfim, A., & Rudebusch, G. (2000). Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(4), 707-721. https://doi.org/10.2307/2601179.
  • Bordo, M.D., & Siklos, P.L. (2015). Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration. NBER Working Paper, No. w20824.
  • Bordo, M. D., & Siklos, P.L. (2017). Central Bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis. Open Economies Review, 28(1), 19-45. doi: 10.1007/s11079-016-9411-2
  • Borio, C., & White, W.R. (2004). Whither Monetary and Financail Stability? The Implications of Evolving Policy Regimes. BIS Working Papers, No.147.
  • Brunner, K. (1983). Has Monetarism Failed? Cato Journal, 3, 23-62.
  • Deutsche Bundesbank (2015). The Importance of Macroprudential Policy for Monetary Policy. Monthly Report March 2015. 39-71.
  • Calderón, C., Duncan, R., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2004). Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies. Banco Central de Chile, No.285.
  • Carare, A., Andrea, S., Mark, R.S., & Marc, Z. (2002). Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/02/102, June 2002.
  • Cecchetti, S.G., & Krause, S. (2002). Central Bank Structure, Policy Efficiency, and Macroeconomic Performance: Exploring Empirical Relationships. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84, 99-117. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.47-60.
  • Cukierman, A. (1986). Central Bank Behavior and Credibility: Some Recent Theoretical Developments. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 68(5), 5-17. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.68.5-17.him.
  • Çakmaklı, C., & Demiralp, S. (2020). A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility. Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper No: 2015 October 2020.
  • Chansriniyom, T., Epstein, N., & Nalban, V. (2020). The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/20/201.
  • Dabla-Norris, E., Kim. D., Zermeño, M., Billmeier, A., & Kramarenko, V. (2007). Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/07/133, June, 2007.
  • De Mendonça, H.F. (2007). Towards Credibility from Inflation Targeting: The Brazilian Experience. Applied Economics, 39(20), 2599-2615. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707324.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2009). Inflation Targeting Credibility and Reputation: The Consequences for the Interest Rate. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1228-1238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.05.010
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & De Guimaráes e Souza, G.J. (2012). Is Inflation Targeting A Good Remedy to Control Inflation? Journal of Development Economics, 98(2), 178-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.011.
  • De Mendonça, H.F., & Tiberto, B.P. (2017). Effect of Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through on Inflation: An Assessment for Developing Countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 50, 196-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.03.027
  • Debelle, G., & Fischer, S. (1994). How Independent Should A Central Bank Be? J.C. Fuhrer (Ed.). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policy Makers [Conference Series No.38] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 195-225).
  • Debelle, G., Masson, P., Savastano, M., & Sharma, S. (1998). Inflation Targeting as A Framework for Monetary Policy. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/97/35.
  • Dell’Aricca, G., Rabanal, P., & Sandri, D. (2018). Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 147-72. doi: 10.1257/jep.32.4.147
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., Arcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2009). Anchors for Inflation Expectations. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No.229.
  • Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2012). A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1). 1-36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2442.
  • Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00207.
  • Drazen, A., & Masson P.R. (1994). Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policy Makers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 735-754. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118420.
  • Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018-1052. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118420.
  • Farmer, R.E.A. (2012). The Effect of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rules on Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28(4), 622-639. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grs024.
  • Faust, J.W., & Svensson, L.E.O. (1998). Credibility and Transparency: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals. NBER Working Paper, No.6452.
  • Freedman, C., & Laxton, D. (2009). Country Experiences with the Introduction and Implementation of Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/09/161.
  • Fuhrer, J.C. (1994). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers: An Overview. J.C. Fuhrer (Ed.). Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policy Makers [Conference Series No.38], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 3-16.
  • Fuhrer, J.C., & Moore, G. (1995). Inflation Persistence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 127-159. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118513.
  • Gerlach-Kristen, P., & Mossner, R. (2014). Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 150(2), 55-87. doi:10.1007/BF03399402.
  • Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B.P., & Swanson, E.T. (2007). Market-based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 25(2), 201-212. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500106000000387.
  • Heenan, G., Marcel, P., & Scott, R. (2006). Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design and Communications. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/06/278.
  • International Monetary Fund (2018). Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize. World Economic Outlook October, Chapter 3, 101-126.
  • Issler, J.V., & Soares, A.F. (2019). Central Bank Credibility and Inflation Expectations: A Microfounded Forecasting Approach, No. 812. EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance-FGV EPGE (Brazil).
  • Kara, A.H. (2012). Monetary Policy in the Post-crises Period, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27(315), 9-36.
  • Laxton, D., & N’Diaye, P. (2002). Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-inflation Trade off: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries. IMF Working Paper, No.WP/02/220.
  • Lee, S., & Kim, Y.M. (2019). Inflation Expectation, Monetary Policy Credibility, and Exchange Rates. Finance Research Letters, 31 December. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.006.
  • Levieuge, G., Lucotte, Y., & Ringuedé, S. (2018). Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index. Review of World Economics, 154, 493-535. doi: 10.1007/s10290-018-0308-6.
  • Levin, A.T., Natalucci, F.M., & Pilger, J.M. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, 86(4), 51-80. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.51-80.
  • Łyziak, T., Mackiewicz, J., & Stanislawska, E. (2007). Central Bank Transparency and Credibility: The Case of Poland. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(1), 67-87. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.05.004.
  • Minella, A., De Freitas, P.S., Goldfajn, I., & Muinhos, M.K. (2003). Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22(7), 1015-1040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.09.008.
  • Montes, G.C. (2009). Reputation, Credibility and Monetary Policy Effectiveness. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39(3), 673-698. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000300009.
  • Montes, G.C. (2013). Credibility and Monetary Transmission Channels under Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis from A Developing Country. Economic Modelling, 30, 670-684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.035.
  • Montes, G.C., & Bastos, J.C.A. (2014). Effects of Reputation and Credibility on Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Brazil. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(3), 387-404. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-11-2012-0158.
  • Montes, G.C., & Curi, A. (2016). The Importance of Credibility for the Conduct of Monetary Policy and Inflation Control: Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis for Brazil under Inflation Targeting. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 46.
  • Montes, G.C. Oliveira, L.V., Curi, A., & Nicolay, R.T.F. (2016), Effects of Transparency, Monetary Policy Signalling and Clarity of Central Bank Communication on Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. Applied Economics, 48(7), 590-607. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1083091.
  • Nyberg, P., & Wilhelmsson, A. (2009). Measuring Event Risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 7(3), 265-287.
  • Özatay, F. (2011). The New Monetary Policy of the Central Bank: Two Targets-three Intermediate Targets-three Tools. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 27–43.
  • Özdağoğlu, A. (2013). Farklı Normalizasyon Yöntemlerinin TOPSIS’te Karar Verme Sürecine Etkisi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 245-257.
  • Perrier, P., & Amano, R. (2000). Credibility and Monetary Policy. Bank of Canada Review, Spring, 11-17.
  • Posen, A. (1998). Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link? Oxford Economic Papers, 50(3), 335-359. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a028650.
  • Potter, S.M. ve Smets, F. (2019). Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools: A Cross-country Analysis. BIS CGFS Papers, No.63.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2008). 2009 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası (16 Aralık 2008), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2019a). Konuşma: Murat Çetinkaya 2019-II Enflasyon Raporu Bilgilendirme Toplantısı (30 Nisan 2019), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2019b). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti (30 Nisan 2019), Sayı 2019-18, TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2020a). 2021 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası (16 Aralık 2020), TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2020b). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti (31 Aralık 2020), Sayı 2020-77. TCMB, Ankara.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası., “Sıkça Sorulan Sorular”, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Banka+Hakkinda/Sikca+Sorulan+Sorular/Para+Politikasi+ve+Enflasyon+Hedeflemesi (erişim tarihi:18.04.2021)
  • Siscú, J. (2002). Inflation Expectations in an Inflation-targeting Regime: A Preliminary Analysis of the Brazilian Case. Applied Economics, 6(4), 703-711..
  • Siklos, P.L. (2013). Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation. Journal of International Economics, 90(1), 218-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.09.005
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (1997). Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets. European Economic Review, 41(6), 1111-1146. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2000a). How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability? NBER Working Paper. No.w7516.
  • Svensson, L.E.O (2000b). Open-economy Inflation Targeting. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 155-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00078-6.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2003). Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization. NBER Workisng Paper, No.w9486.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2009). Flexible Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the Financial Crisis. BIS Review, No.112/2009.
  • Svensson, L.E.O. (2011). Inflation Targeting. B.M. Friedman ve M. Woodford (Ed.). Handbook of Monetary Economics 3B Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, 1237-1302.
  • Ueda, K., & Valencia, F. (2014). Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation. Economics Letters, 125(2), 327-330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.038.
  • Yellen, J.L. (2006). Enhancing FED Credibility. Business Economics, 41(2), 7-13. doi: 10.2145/20060201.
There are 80 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Serdar Varlık 0000-0002-4712-3193

Tolga Daglaroglu 0000-0002-2956-3726

Publication Date November 1, 2021
Submission Date March 11, 2021
Acceptance Date April 27, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Varlık, S., & Daglaroglu, T. (2021). Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 21(2), 256-270. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340
AMA Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. November 2021;21(2):256-270. doi:10.25294/auiibfd.895340
Chicago Varlık, Serdar, and Tolga Daglaroglu. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21, no. 2 (November 2021): 256-70. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
EndNote Varlık S, Daglaroglu T (November 1, 2021) Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21 2 256–270.
IEEE S. Varlık and T. Daglaroglu, “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”, Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 256–270, 2021, doi: 10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
ISNAD Varlık, Serdar - Daglaroglu, Tolga. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi 21/2 (November 2021), 256-270. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
JAMA Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2021;21:256–270.
MLA Varlık, Serdar and Tolga Daglaroglu. “Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–”. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, vol. 21, no. 2, 2021, pp. 256-70, doi:10.25294/auiibfd.895340.
Vancouver Varlık S, Daglaroglu T. Merkez Bankası Kredibilitesinin Ölçümüne Alternatif Bir Yöntem Arayışı –Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Örneği–. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi. 2021;21(2):256-70.
Dizinler

143751437114372      14373