Editorial
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Olaylar ve Yorumlar

Year 2023, Issue: 48, 9 - 62, 31.12.2023

Abstract

Bu incelemede Haziran-Kasım 2023 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ üzerindeki egemenliğini sağlaması sonrası barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme sürecinin seyri ele alınmaktadır.

Dönem içinde Ermenistan’ın başlıca uğraşı ve kaygısı İkinci Karabağ Savaşı (44 Günlük Savaşı) sona erdiren 9 Kasım 2020 ateşkes anlaşmasını olabildiğince lehine çevirebilecek bir barış anlaşması arayışı içinde geçmiştir. Ateşkes anlaşmasının üçüncü tarafı ve uygulanmasının gözetimini üstlenen Rusya’nın Ukrayna savaşı nedeniyle bölgeye ilgisinin ve etkisinin zayıflaması, Batının ise Rusya’ya ikinci bir cephe açmak, Rusya’nın güney Kafkaslardaki nüfuzunu azaltmak üzere Ermenistan’ı yanına çekme girişimleri Ermenistan’da olumlu karşılık bulmuştur.

Esasen Batı yanlısı bir platformla yönetime gelen Başbakan Paşinyan Batının bu yaklaşımına, Rusya’yı karşısına almak pahasına, yeşil ışık yakmış, Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması görüşmeleri, Moskova’nın ikinci plana düştüğü, Brüksel ve Vaşington odaklı yürütülmeye başlanmıştır. Batının başta dengeli olarak başlattığı bu süreç, doğası icabı ve muhtemelen Ermenistan’a bulunulan vaatlerden dolayı, Ermeni yanlısı bir çizgiye girince, Azerbaycan Batının girişimlerine tavır koymaya ve davetlerine katılmamaya başlamıştır.

Azerbaycan’ın 19 Eylül’de 24 saatlik bir askerî harekât ile Karabağ’daki ayrılıkçı yönetime son vermesi ve Karabağ’ın bütünü üzerinde egemenliğini tesis etmesi, barış anlaşması önündeki en büyük engeli ortadan kaldırmış, ancak üç sorunlu konu: sınırların tespiti ve bunun bir alt başlığı olarak Ermenistan içindeki anklavlar, göç eden nüfusun karşılıklı olarak geri dönmeleri ve Zangezur ulaşım koridoru konusu gündemdeki yerini korumaya devam etmiştir. Ermenistan’ın Kasım ayında geliştirdiği “Barış Kavşakları” projesi ulaşım sorununun da çözülebileceği iyimserliği uyandırmıştır.

Bununla beraber, Ermenistan yetkililerinin iki yüzlü söylemi, bir yandan Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ Ermenilerini göçe zorlayarak “etnik temizlik” yaptıkları ve Azerbaycan’ın “Batı Azerbaycan”a saldırı planları içinde olduğu yolunda sahte suçlamalarla bütün ikili temaslarında ve uluslararası forumlarda Azerbeycan’ı kötülemesi, diğer taraftan barış havarisi kesilerek, barışı isteyen ve hedefleyen tek taraf olduklarını ileri sürerek, kısa zamanda bir barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ümitlerini soldurmuştur.

Bununla beraber, Ermenistan yetkililerinin iki yüzlü söylemi, bir yandan Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ Ermenilerini göçe zorlayarak “etnik temizlik” yaptıkları ve Azerbaycan’ın “Batı Azerbaycan”a saldırı planları içinde olduğu yolunda sahte suçlamalarla bütün ikili temaslarında ve uluslararası forumlarda Azerbeycan’ı kötülemesi, diğer taraftan barış havarisi kesilerek, barışı isteyen ve hedefleyen tek taraf olduklarını ileri sürerek, kısa zamanda bir barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ümitlerini soldurmuştur.

Türkiye ile ilişkiler barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeye bağlı ve paralel olarak olumlu beklenti anlayışını sürdürmüştür.

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Facts and Comments

Year 2023, Issue: 48, 9 - 62, 31.12.2023

Abstract

This article covers the period of June-November 2023 of the internal developments in Armenia, the international standing and relations of Armenia, the progress in concluding the peace agreement following the establishment of full sovereignty of Azerbaijan in Karabakh and the bilateral relations of Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalization of their relations.

During the period, the main concern and strive of Armenia was focused on the availability of modifying the cease-fire agreement of 9 November 2020 that ended the Second Karabakh War (44-day War), through a peace agreement to its favor to the extent possible. The third party to the cease-fire agreement and supervisor of the implementation of the agreement, Russia’s weakening interest and impact in the region stemming from its war with Ukraine on the one hand and the strategy of the West to distract Russia on a second front as well as its initiative to align Armenia on its side with a view to reducing the influence of Russia in the South Caucasus has received a positive response from Armenia.

Prime Minister Pashinyan, who was elected on a pro-West platform has given the green light to this initiative of the West at the expense of alienating Russia, whereby peace agreement negotiations with Azerbaijan have primarily moved on to Brussels and Washington D.C., leaving Moscow at a secondary status. When this process encouraged by the West started initially in a balanced manner, but inherent in its nature and possibly due to promises made to Armenia, deviated to a biased pro-Armenian course, it has caused Azerbaijan to keep its distance and eventually to refuse to attend the invitations.

The 24-hour military operation of Azerbaijan on 19 September which brought the end of the separatist administration in Karabakh and established its full sovereignty on the whole territory of Karabakh has thus removed the major hurdle before the peace agreement. However, three points of dispute; the demarcation of borders and a sub-item under this heading, the enclaves within Armenia, the return of refugees to their homelands on a reciprocal basis, and the opening of the transport corridor of Zangezur have kept their places in the agenda. The “Crossroads of Peace” Project Armenia announced in November has raised the optimism that a solution to the transport issue could be at hand.

However, the double discourse on part of Armenia, on the one hand alleging that Azerbaijan committed ethnic cleansing by forced migration of Karabakh Armenians and also alleging that Azerbaijan is planning an assault to “Western Azerbaijan”, disparaging Azerbaijan with false accusations at all international forums, yet on the other hand presenting itself as the only party whose singular desire and aim is to establish peace; has dimmed chances for an early conclusion of a peace agreement.

Relations with Türkiye have kept their positive impetus in line and tandem with the development in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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There are 150 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Political Science (Other), International Relations (Other)
Journal Section Editorial
Authors

Alev Kılıç 0000-0001-5180-2896

Publication Date December 31, 2023
Submission Date December 4, 2023
Acceptance Date December 6, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 48

Cite

Chicago Kılıç, Alev. “Facts and Comments”. Review of Armenian Studies, no. 48 (December 2023): 9-62.