Orta Anadolu Bölgesi ve Civarındaki Depremselliğin Bölge-Zaman-Magnitüd Analizleri ve Güncel Deprem Potansiyeli

Year 2019, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 148 - 166, 18.12.2019

Serkan Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.46464/tdad.644126

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin Orta Anadolu Bölgesi ve
civarındaki deprem oluşumlarının detaylı istatistiksel analizlerini yapmak ve
gelecekteki olası deprem bölgelerini tahmin etmektir. Bu kapsamda, Mc-değeri,
b-değeri, Dc-değeri, Z-değeri gibi sismotektonik değişkenlerin
bölge-zaman-magnitüd analizleri yapılarak, güncel/gelecek deprem potansiyeli
ortaya konulmuştur. Mc=2.6 alınarak b=1.26±0.07 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu büyük
değer küçük magnitüdlü depremlerin baskın olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Dc-değeri
1.31±0.03 olarak hesaplanmıştır ve bu nispeten küçük değer, episantrlar
arasındaki uzaklığın kümelenme çapına yaklaştığını ve deprem aktivitesinin daha
küçük ölçeklerde veya daha büyük alanlarda kümelendiğini göstermektedir. 2019
yılı başında düşük b-değerli ve yüksek Z-değerli anomali bölgeleri, Tuz Gölü Fay
Zonu ve civarında, Orta Anadolu Fay Zonunda, Salanda ve Niğde faylarında
gözlenmiştir. Önemli bir sonuç olarak, bu bölgeler gelecekteki büyük/güçlü
depremler için en olası bölgeler olarak düşünülebilir.

Keywords

Orta Anadolu, b-değeri, Dc-değeri, Z-değeri, Deprem potansiyeli

Supporting Institution

Gümüşhane Üniversitesi

Thanks

ZMAP yazılımını sağlayan Prof. Dr. Stefan Wiemer’e (ETH, Zürich), yapıcı tavsiyelerde bulunan hakem kuruluna ve editöre teşekkür ederim. Bu çalışmada kullanılan deprem verisini web sayfasından temin etmemi sağlayan AFAD ve KRDAE’ye teşekkür ederim.

Region-Time-Magnitude Analyses of the Seismicity in and around the Central Anatolian Region and Current Earthquake Potential

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to make detailed
statistical analyses of earthquake occurrences in and around the Central
Anatolian Region of Turkey and to forecast the possible earthquake regions in
the future. In this scope, by performing the region-time-magnitude analyses of
seismotectonic variables such as Mc-value, b-value, Dc-value, Z-value, the
current/future earthquake potential was defined. b-value was computed as 1.26±0.07
by taking Mc=2.6 and this large value indicates that the earthquakes with small
magnitude are dominant. Dc-value was calculated as 1.31±0.03 and this
relatively small value shows that distance between the epicenters approaches
the diameter of cluster, and earthquake activity is more clustered in larger
regions/at smaller scales. Anomaly regions with low b-value and large Z-value
at the beginning of 2019 were found in and around Tuz Gölü Fault Zone, Central
Anatolian Fault Zone, Salanda and Niğde faults. As an important result, these
regions may be considered as the most likely regions for strong/large
earthquakes in the future.

Keywords

Central Anatolia, b-value, Dc-value, Z-value, Earthquake potential

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