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ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE WITH "PER CAPITA" INDICATORS

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 37, 493 - 514, 01.06.2020

Öz

The purpose of this study is to propose an alternative set of performance indicators that consider the human-oriented approach in evaluating macroeconomic management processes. Firstly, the compatibility of the conjuncture structure between external debt stock to GDP, gross fixed capital formation to GDP, external debt stock per capita, gross fixed capital formation per capita and GDP has been examined. Using the HP-Filter method for the period of 1989-2019, it was determined the data calculated as per capita gave more consistent results with the GDP conjuncture. Secondly, the relationship between GDP per capita, external debt stock and gross fixed capital formation was analyzed using the ARDL. Consequently, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and the external debt stock was determined, while the existence of gross fixed capital formation and a long-term relationship could not be proven. The new model confirmed the positive relationship between gross fixed capital formation and GDP. Finally, Turkey's macroeconomic performance has evaluated in terms of GDP per capita, external debt and gross fixed capital formation data.

Kaynakça

  • Akalpler, E., & Hove, S. (2019). Carbon emissions, energy use, real GDP per capita and trade matrix in the Indian economy-an ARDL approach. Energy, 168, 1081-1093.
  • Alp, H., Baskaya, Y. S., Kilinc, M., & Yuksel, C. (2011). Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini (No. 1103). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Arby, M. F., & Batool, I. (2007). Estimating quarterly gross fixed capital formation. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/4956
  • Awodumi, O. B., & Adewuyi, A. O. (2020). The role of non-renewable energy consumption in economic growth and carbon emission: Evidence from oil producing economies in Africa. Energy Strategy Reviews, 27, 100434.
  • Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C., & Rother, P. (2013). Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area. Journal of international money and finance, 32, 809-821.
  • Bond, S., A. Leblebicioglu, and A. Schiantarelli. 2010. “Capital Accumulation and Growth; A New Look at the Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25: 1073–1099.
  • Butts, H. C. (2006). Short-term external debt and economic growth in a small open economy. Transition Journal, 34, 117-34.
  • Chang, T., & Chian, G. (2011). Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries. Economic Modelling, 2404-2408.
  • Çağlayan, E. (2006), “Enflasyon, Faiz oranı ve Büyümenin Yurtiçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21 (1), 423-438
  • Dao, M. Q. (2008). The impact of investment climate indicators on gross capital formation in developing countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 155-163.
  • De Long, J. B., & Summers, L. H. (1991). Equipment investment and economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 445-502.
  • Drehmann, M., & Yetman, J. (2018). Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter–at least to generate credit gaps. https://www.bis.org/publ/work744.pdf
  • Dritsakis, N., Varelas, E., & Adamopoulos, A. (2006). The main determinants of economic growth: An empirical investigation with Granger causality analysis for Greece.
  • Gibescu, O. (2010). Does the gross fixed capital formation represent a factor for supporting the economic growth?.
  • Guisan, M. C. (2008). Rates, ratios and per cápita variables in international models: analysis of Investment and Foreign Trade in OECD countries. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 5(2), 1-22.
  • Guisan, M. C., & Neira, I. (2006). Direct and indirect effects of human capital on world development, 1960-2004. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(1).
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2018). Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 831-843.
  • Heylen, F., Hoebeeck, A., & Buyse, T. (2013). Government efficiency, institutions, and the effects of fiscal consolidation on public debt. European journal of political economy, 31, 40-59.
  • Hodrick, R J and E C Prescott (1981), “Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation”, working paper, Northwestern University.
  • Hodrick, R J and E C Prescott (1997), “Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1): 1-16.
  • Kaldor, N. (1961). Capital accumulation and economic growth. In The theory of capital (pp. 177-222). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Kamaruddin, R., & Jusoff, K. (2009). An ARDL approach in food and beverages industry growth process in Malaysia. International Business Research, 2(3), 98-107.
  • Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American economic review, 942-963.
  • Lipsey, R.E. & Kravis I.B. (1987) Is the U.S. a spendthrift nation? Working Paper No. 2274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
  • Meyer, D. F., & Sanusi, K. A. (2019). A Causality Analysis of the Relationships Between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Economic Growth and Employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2008). Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2331-2341.
  • Nautet, M., & Van Meensel, L. (2011). Economic impact of the public debt. Economic Review, 2, 7-19.
  • Nguyen, T. Q., Clements, M. B. J., & Bhattacharya, M. R. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries (No. 3-249). International Monetary Fund.
  • Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Pavelescu, F. M. (2008). Gross capital formation and economic growth during early 2000’s in EU-member and candidates states. Romania, 11(12.17), 0-48.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (1997). The role of economic theory in modelling the long run. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 178-191.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. P. (1998). Structural analysis of cointegrating VARs. Journal of Economic Surveys, 12(5), 471-505.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Poirson, M. H., Ricci, M. L. A., & Pattillo, M. C. A. (2002). External debt and growth (No. 2-69). International Monetary Fund.
  • Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic polices. Economic Modelling, 38, 204-210.
  • Rowthorn, R. (1995). Capital formation and unemployment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 11(1), 26-39.
  • Satti, S. L., Hassan, M. S., Mahmood, H., & Shahbaz, M. (2014). Coal consumption: An alternate energy resource to fuel economic growth in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 282-287.
  • Solow, R. M. (1962). Technical progress, capital formation, and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 52(2), 76-86.
  • Solow, R. M. (1962). Technical progress, capital formation, and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 52(2), 76-86.
  • Uneze, E. (2013). The relation between capital formation and economic growth: evidence from sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16(3), 272-286.
  • Vidal, J. P. (1998). The effect of emigration on human capital formation. Journal of Population Economics, 11(4), 589-600.
  • Vidyarthi, H. (2015), "Energy consumption and growth in South Asia: evidence from a panel error correction model", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 9 No. 3, pp. 295-310. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-10-2013-0002

MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSIN KİŞİ BAŞINA DÜŞEN GÖSTERGELERLE ALTERNATİF ANALİZİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 37, 493 - 514, 01.06.2020

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, makroekonomik yönetim süreçlerinin değerlendirilmesine insan odaklı yaklaşımı dikkate alan alternatif bir performans göstergeler seti önermektir. Çalışmada öncelikle dış borç stokunun ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumunun GSYH içindeki payı, kişi başına düşen dış borç stoku, kişi başına düşen gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumunun konjonktür yapısıyla GSYH’nin konjonktür yapısının uyumlulukları incelenmiştir. 1989-2019 döneminde HP- Filter yöntemiyle yapılan inceleme sonucunda kişi başına düşen şeklindeki verilerin GSYH konjonktür yapısıyla daha uyumlu sonuçlar verdiği belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında, kişi başına düşen GSYH, dış borç stoku ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ilişkisi ARDL modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda GSYH ile dış borç stoku arasında uzun dönemli denge ilişkisinin varlığı belirlenirken, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumuyla uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı kanıtlanamamıştır. Ancak oluşturulan model gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumuyla GSYH arasındaki pozitif ilişkiyi doğrulamıştır. Çalışmanın son bölümünde Türkiye’nin makroekonomik performansı kişi başına düşen GSYH, dış borç stoku ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu verileri ışığında değerlendirilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Akalpler, E., & Hove, S. (2019). Carbon emissions, energy use, real GDP per capita and trade matrix in the Indian economy-an ARDL approach. Energy, 168, 1081-1093.
  • Alp, H., Baskaya, Y. S., Kilinc, M., & Yuksel, C. (2011). Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini (No. 1103). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Arby, M. F., & Batool, I. (2007). Estimating quarterly gross fixed capital formation. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/4956
  • Awodumi, O. B., & Adewuyi, A. O. (2020). The role of non-renewable energy consumption in economic growth and carbon emission: Evidence from oil producing economies in Africa. Energy Strategy Reviews, 27, 100434.
  • Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C., & Rother, P. (2013). Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area. Journal of international money and finance, 32, 809-821.
  • Bond, S., A. Leblebicioglu, and A. Schiantarelli. 2010. “Capital Accumulation and Growth; A New Look at the Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25: 1073–1099.
  • Butts, H. C. (2006). Short-term external debt and economic growth in a small open economy. Transition Journal, 34, 117-34.
  • Chang, T., & Chian, G. (2011). Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries. Economic Modelling, 2404-2408.
  • Çağlayan, E. (2006), “Enflasyon, Faiz oranı ve Büyümenin Yurtiçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21 (1), 423-438
  • Dao, M. Q. (2008). The impact of investment climate indicators on gross capital formation in developing countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 155-163.
  • De Long, J. B., & Summers, L. H. (1991). Equipment investment and economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 445-502.
  • Drehmann, M., & Yetman, J. (2018). Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter–at least to generate credit gaps. https://www.bis.org/publ/work744.pdf
  • Dritsakis, N., Varelas, E., & Adamopoulos, A. (2006). The main determinants of economic growth: An empirical investigation with Granger causality analysis for Greece.
  • Gibescu, O. (2010). Does the gross fixed capital formation represent a factor for supporting the economic growth?.
  • Guisan, M. C. (2008). Rates, ratios and per cápita variables in international models: analysis of Investment and Foreign Trade in OECD countries. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 5(2), 1-22.
  • Guisan, M. C., & Neira, I. (2006). Direct and indirect effects of human capital on world development, 1960-2004. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(1).
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2018). Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 831-843.
  • Heylen, F., Hoebeeck, A., & Buyse, T. (2013). Government efficiency, institutions, and the effects of fiscal consolidation on public debt. European journal of political economy, 31, 40-59.
  • Hodrick, R J and E C Prescott (1981), “Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation”, working paper, Northwestern University.
  • Hodrick, R J and E C Prescott (1997), “Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1): 1-16.
  • Kaldor, N. (1961). Capital accumulation and economic growth. In The theory of capital (pp. 177-222). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Kamaruddin, R., & Jusoff, K. (2009). An ARDL approach in food and beverages industry growth process in Malaysia. International Business Research, 2(3), 98-107.
  • Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American economic review, 942-963.
  • Lipsey, R.E. & Kravis I.B. (1987) Is the U.S. a spendthrift nation? Working Paper No. 2274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
  • Meyer, D. F., & Sanusi, K. A. (2019). A Causality Analysis of the Relationships Between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Economic Growth and Employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2008). Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2331-2341.
  • Nautet, M., & Van Meensel, L. (2011). Economic impact of the public debt. Economic Review, 2, 7-19.
  • Nguyen, T. Q., Clements, M. B. J., & Bhattacharya, M. R. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries (No. 3-249). International Monetary Fund.
  • Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Pavelescu, F. M. (2008). Gross capital formation and economic growth during early 2000’s in EU-member and candidates states. Romania, 11(12.17), 0-48.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (1997). The role of economic theory in modelling the long run. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 178-191.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. P. (1998). Structural analysis of cointegrating VARs. Journal of Economic Surveys, 12(5), 471-505.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Poirson, M. H., Ricci, M. L. A., & Pattillo, M. C. A. (2002). External debt and growth (No. 2-69). International Monetary Fund.
  • Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic polices. Economic Modelling, 38, 204-210.
  • Rowthorn, R. (1995). Capital formation and unemployment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 11(1), 26-39.
  • Satti, S. L., Hassan, M. S., Mahmood, H., & Shahbaz, M. (2014). Coal consumption: An alternate energy resource to fuel economic growth in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 282-287.
  • Solow, R. M. (1962). Technical progress, capital formation, and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 52(2), 76-86.
  • Solow, R. M. (1962). Technical progress, capital formation, and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 52(2), 76-86.
  • Uneze, E. (2013). The relation between capital formation and economic growth: evidence from sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16(3), 272-286.
  • Vidal, J. P. (1998). The effect of emigration on human capital formation. Journal of Population Economics, 11(4), 589-600.
  • Vidyarthi, H. (2015), "Energy consumption and growth in South Asia: evidence from a panel error correction model", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 9 No. 3, pp. 295-310. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-10-2013-0002
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Nazım Ekren 0000-0002-7550-1673

Mefule Fındıkçı 0000-0003-0150-0990

Kübra Bildik 0000-0002-7243-5084

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Ocak 2020
Kabul Tarihi 15 Mayıs 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 19 Sayı: 37

Kaynak Göster

APA Ekren, N., Fındıkçı, M., & Bildik, K. (2020). MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSIN KİŞİ BAŞINA DÜŞEN GÖSTERGELERLE ALTERNATİF ANALİZİ. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(37), 493-514.