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Mesken nitelikli gayrimenkul fiyat tahmininde ağaç tabanlı makine öğrenmesi algoritmalarının karşılaştırılması

Year 2024, , 116 - 130, 15.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.1363531

Abstract

Mesken nitelikli gayrimenkuller, güvenli ve karlı bir yatırım aracı olarak kabul edilirken aynı zamanda temel insan hakkı olan barınma ihtiyacını da karşılamaktadır. Konutun hem değerini etkileyen hem de yere, kişiye ve zamana göre değişen çok sayıda parametrenin varlığı değerleme sürecini zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu bakımdan, doğru ve gerçekçi fiyat tahmini başta alıcılar olmak üzere sektörün tüm paydaşları için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Klasik matematiksel modelleme yöntemlerine alternatif olan makine öğrenme algoritmaları, fiyat tahmin modellerinin etkenliğini ve başarısını artırma bağlamında önemli olanaklar sunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmanın amacı, Artvin Kent Merkezinde ağaç temelli makine öğrenme algoritmalarından Rastgele Orman (RF), Gradyan Artırma Makinaları (GBM), AdaBoost ve Aşırı Gradyan Artırma (XGBoost) yöntemlerinin konut değerlemede uygulanabilirlikleri ve tahmin performanslarının araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmanın sonucunda, XGBoost ve RF algoritmaları, konut değerini tahmin etmede Korelasyon Katsayısı (Correlation Coefficients- R2), Ortalama Mutlak Hata (Mean Absolute Error - MAE) ve Karesel Ortalama hata (Root Mean Squared Error- RMSE) ölçütlerinin tümünde (sırasıyla 0.705 ve 0.701) en iyi performansı göstermiştir. Böylece, başta XGBoost ve RF olmak üzere makine öğrenme algoritmalarının konut değerlemede az veri durumunda bile yeterli performans gösterdiği, veri setinin genişletilmesiyle birlikte başarı performansının daha da artacağı söylenebilir.

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Comparison of tree-based machine learning algorithms in price prediction of residential real estate

Year 2024, , 116 - 130, 15.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.1363531

Abstract

Residential real estate is regarded as a safe and profitable investment tool while also meeting the basic human right to housing. The fact that there exists a large number of parameters both affecting the value of a house and varying based on place, person, and time makes the valuation process difficult. In this regard, accurate and realistic price prediction is critical for all stakeholders, particularly purchasers. Machine learning algorithms as an alternative to classical mathematical modeling methods offer great prospects for boosting the efficacy and success rate of price estimating models. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability and prediction performance of the tree-based ML algorithms -Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), AdaBoost, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)- in house valuation for Artvin City Center. As a result of the study, the XGBoost and RF algorithms performed the best in estimating house value (0.705 and 0.701, respectively) as determined by the Correlation Coefficients (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. Thus, it can be said that ML algorithms, particularly XGBoost and RF, perform satisfactorily in residential real estate appraisal even with modest amounts of data and that the success rate grows as the amount of data increases.

References

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  • Başer, U., & Bozoğlu, M. (2019). Determination of the factors affecting housing rent using hedonic price model: the case of Ilkadım and Atakum districts of Samsun province. Eurasian Journal of Researches in Social and Economics, 6(4), 308-316.
  • Bilgilioğlu, S.S., & Yılmaz, H.M. (2021). Comparison of different machine learning models for mass appraisal of real estate. Survey Review, 55, 32-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396265.2021.1996799
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  • Can, R., Kocaman, S., & Gokceoglu, C. (2021). A comprehensive assessment of XGBoost algorithm for landslide susceptibility mapping in the upper basin of Ataturk Dam, Turkey. Applied Science, 11, 4993. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11114993
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  • Chen, T., & Guestrin, C. (2016). XG Boost: A scalable tree boosting system. 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining-KDD (pp. 785–794), New York.
  • Chen, W., Xie, X., Wang, J., Pradhan, B., Hong, H., Tien, B., Duan, Z., & Ma, J. (2017). A comparative study of logistic model tree, random forest, and classification and regression tree models for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility. Catena, 151, 147-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.11.032
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  • Embaye, W.T., Zereyesus, Y.A., & Chen, B. (2021). Predicting the rental value of houses in household surveys in Tanzania, Uganda and Malawi: Evaluations of hedonic pricing and machine learning approaches. Plos One. 16, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244953
  • Esen, Y., & Tokgöz, H. (2021). A different perspective to real estate valuation with fuzzy logic modeling. Journal of Engineering Sciences and Design, 9(4), 1155-1165. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.876523
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  • He, Q., Jiang, Z., Wang, M., & Liu, K. (2021). Landslide and wildfire susceptibility assessment in Southeast Asia using ensemble machine learning methods. Remote Sensing, 13(8), 1572. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13081572
  • Hjort, A., Pensar, J., Scheel, I., & Sommervoll, D.E. (2022). House price prediction with gradient boosted trees under different loss functions. Journal of Property Research, 39(4), 338-364. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2022.2070525
  • Hong, J., Choi, H., & Kim, W.S. (2020). A house price valuation based on the random forest approach: the mass appraisal of residential property in South Korea. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 24(3), 140–152. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.11544
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There are 67 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Land Management, Geospatial Information Systems and Geospatial Data Modelling
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ayşe Yavuz Özalp 0000-0002-8297-9034

Halil Akıncı 0000-0002-9957-1692

Publication Date March 15, 2024
Submission Date September 20, 2023
Acceptance Date October 31, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Yavuz Özalp, A., & Akıncı, H. (2024). Comparison of tree-based machine learning algorithms in price prediction of residential real estate. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 14(1), 116-130. https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.1363531